Detection of future changes in trends and scaling exponents in extreme short-term rainfall at selected stations in Slovakia

  • Silvia KOHNOVÁ Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil Engineering
  • Marianna VASILAKI Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessally, Greece
  • Martin HANEL Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Environmental Science
  • Ján SZOLGAY Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil Engineering
  • Kamila HLAVČOVÁ Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil Engineering
  • Athanasios LOUKAS Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessally, Greece
  • Gabriel FÖLDES Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil Engineering
Keywords: trend analysis, scaling exponents, short-term rainfall, RCM projections

Abstract

This paper analyses projected changes in short-term rainfall events during the warm season (April – October) in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The analysis of trend changes and changes in scaling exponents was done for the Hurbanovo, Bratislava, Oravsk´a Lesná, and Myjava stations in Slovakia. The characteristics of maximum rainfall events were analysed for two scenario periods, one past and one future (1960–2000 and 2070–2100) and compared to the characteristics of the actual observed events. The main findings from the analysis show that 60-min shortterm events for most of the RCM simulations will either increase or remain constant. On the other hand, the depths and intensities of daily events are projected to increase significantly; in some cases they were found to be ten times larger. Trends in future events at the Hurbanovo station were found to be insignificant. In the other stations positive trends in future rainfall events prevail, except for daily rainfall at the Myjava station, which shows a negative trend. Using results from the selected simulations, the scaling exponents estimated are on average lower than the exponents of the data observed. On the other hand, due to the higher daily precipitation amounts in the future seen to all the scenarios, the downscaled values of short-term rainfall at all the stations analysed might be considerably higher in the future horizons, which could subsequently affect future design rainfall values for engineering designs.

Author Biographies

Silvia KOHNOVÁ, Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil Engineering

Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Radlinského 11, 810 05 Bratislava, Slovakia

Marianna VASILAKI, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessally, Greece

Laboratory of Hydrology and Aquatic Systems Analysis, PedionAreos, 38334 Volos, Greece

Martin HANEL, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Environmental Science

Kamýcká 129, 165 00 Prague 6 – Suchdol, Czech Republic

Ján SZOLGAY, Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil Engineering

Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Radlinského 11, 810 05 Bratislava, Slovakia

Kamila HLAVČOVÁ, Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil Engineering

Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Radlinského 11, 810 05 Bratislava, Slovakia

Athanasios LOUKAS, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessally, Greece

Laboratory of Hydrology and Aquatic Systems Analysis, PedionAreos, 38334 Volos, Greece

Gabriel FÖLDES, Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Faculty of Civil Engineering

Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Radlinského 11, 810 05 Bratislava, Slovakia

Published
2018-09-30
How to Cite
KOHNOVÁ, S., VASILAKI, M., HANEL, M., SZOLGAY, J., HLAVČOVÁ, K., LOUKAS, A., & FÖLDES, G. (2018). Detection of future changes in trends and scaling exponents in extreme short-term rainfall at selected stations in Slovakia. Contributions to Geophysics and Geodesy, 48(3), 207-230. https://doi.org/10.2478/congeo-2018-0009
Section
original research papers