Detection of future changes in seasonality in extreme short-term rainfall in selected stations of Slovakia

Marianna VASILAKI; Silvia KOHNOVÁ; Martin HANEL; Ján SZOLGAY; Kamila HLAVČOVÁ; Athanasios LOUKAS; Peter RONČÁK

doi:10.1515/congeo-2017-0009

Marianna VASILAKI Laboratory of Hydrology and Aquatic Systems Analysis, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessally
Silvia KOHNOVÁ Dept. of Land and Water Resources Management, Slovak University of Technology
Martin HANEL Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Environmental Science
Ján SZOLGAY Dept. of Land and Water Resources Management, Slovak University of Technology
Kamila HLAVČOVÁ Dept. of Land and Water Resources Management, Slovak University of Technology
Athanasios LOUKAS Laboratory of Hydrology and Aquatic Systems Analysis, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessally
Peter RONČÁK Dept. of Land and Water Resources Management, Slovak University of Technology

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/congeo-2017-0009

Keywords: seasonality analysis, short-term rainfall, RCM projections

Abstract

This paper analyses the projected changes in short-term rainfall events during the warm season (April–October) in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The seasonality analysis was done for the Hurbanovo, Bratislava, Oravská Lesná, and Myjava stations in Slovakia. The characteristics of maximum rainfall events were analysed for two scenario periods, one past and one future (1960–2000 and 2070–2100) and compared to the characteristics of the actual observed events. The main findings from the analysis show that short-term events of 60 minutes appear to have stronger seasonality than daily events that show a rather high variability. The seasonality concentration index calculated for the 60 min events averages to 0.77, while that of daily events averaged to 0.65. The differences between the dates of the occurrence of past and future events are not significant in the lowland areas, while in the mountainous areas the future events have been found to occur earlier than past ones.

Author Biographies

Marianna VASILAKI, Laboratory of Hydrology and Aquatic Systems Analysis, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessally

PedionAreos, 38334 Volos, Greece

Silvia KOHNOVÁ, Dept. of Land and Water Resources Management, Slovak University of Technology

Radlinského 11, 810 05 Bratislava, Slovak Republic

Martin HANEL, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Environmental Science

Kamýcká 129, 165 00 Prague 6 – Suchdol, Czech Republic

Ján SZOLGAY, Dept. of Land and Water Resources Management, Slovak University of Technology

Radlinského 11, 810 05 Bratislava, Slovak Republic

Kamila HLAVČOVÁ, Dept. of Land and Water Resources Management, Slovak University of Technology

Radlinského 11, 810 05 Bratislava, Slovak Republic

Athanasios LOUKAS, Laboratory of Hydrology and Aquatic Systems Analysis, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Thessally

PedionAreos, 38334 Volos, Greece

Peter RONČÁK, Dept. of Land and Water Resources Management, Slovak University of Technology

Radlinského 11, 810 05 Bratislava, Slovak Republic