Runoff change scenarios based on regional climate change projections in mountainous basins in Slovakia

Zuzana ŠTEFUNKOVÁ; Kamila HLAVČOVÁ; Milan LAPIN

doi:10.2478/congeo-2013-0019

Zuzana ŠTEFUNKOVÁ Faculty of Civil Engineering, Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Slovak Republic
Kamila HLAVČOVÁ Faculty of Civil Engineering, Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Slovak Republic
Milan LAPIN Faculty of Mathematics, Physics and Informatics, Comenius University in Bratislava, Slovak Republic

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/congeo-2013-0019

Keywords: climate change, regional circulation models (RCMs), Hron rainfall-runoff model, SRES A1B emission scenarios

Abstract

In the study the potential impact of climate change on river runoff in the upper
Hron River, V´ah River, and Laborec River basin was evaluated using the Hron conceptual
spatially-lumped rainfall-runoff model, which was driven by regional circulation models
of atmosphere. The rainfall-runoff model was calibrated with data from the 1981–1995
period and validated with data from the 1996–2010 period. Changes in climate variables in
the future were expressed by three different regional climate change projections: KNMI,
MPI and ALADIN-Climate for the period 1961–2100. Changes in the seasonal runoff
distribution were evaluated by a comparison of the simulated long-term mean monthly
discharges in the river basin outlets in future decades with the present stage.